Modeling the Spread of Covid-19 Pandemic in Morocco

Nowadays, coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) poses a great threat to public health and economy worldwide. Unfortunately, there is yet no effective drug for this disease. For this, several countries have adopted multiple preventive interventions to avoid the spread of Covid-19. Here, we propose a delayed mathematical model to predict the epidemiological trend of Covid-19 in Morocco. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of the proposed model are rigorously studied. Moreover, numerical simulations are presented in order to test the effectiveness of the preventive measures and strategies that were imposed by the Moroccan authorities and also help policy makers and public health administration to develop such strategies. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

COVID-19 Vaccination, Herd Immunity and The Transition Toward Normalcy: Challenges with The Upcoming Sports Events

Background. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has created an unprecedented and daunting challenge for humanity to survive. This has also affected the sporting events across the globe as the majority of the tournaments have been cancelled or postponed as a result. For life to return to pre-pandemic normalcy, an effective and safe vaccination program needs to be implemented, be readily accessible, widely available, and affordable at the same time. Objectives. In this review, we analyze various challenges which demonstrate that COVID-19 is far from over.Methods. A systematic literature search was conducted on PubMed, ScienceDirect, Medline, google scholar and Scopus from the commencement of the COVID-19 pandemic to 22 June 2021. The current report is a summary of data regarding challenges faced by the COVID-19 vaccination campaign and the challenges for a transition toward normalcy especially for big sports events. Results. The current COVID-19 pandemic has likely resulted in sporting events and tournaments being canceled, postponed, or held without or with restricted spectators around the world. A combination of measures including prompt vaccination with the beneficial impact of the vaccines in reducing the severity of disease, advances in treatment, expanded use of diagnostics and better implementation of public-health policies are a necessity. Following this implementation, a transition toward normality could be expected when the mortality rate of COVID-19 simulates the average influenza statistics, with public-health measures continuing to play an important role worldwide. Conclusion. The authors believe that COVID-19 will be endemic in the human population, similar to seasonal influenza, and that COVID-19 vaccines will be included as an add-on to seasonal influenza vaccinations, being administered every winter for at least the next few decades. With adequate vaccination, the sporting world will be able to withstand the challenges and resume global events, returning to pre-Covid levels of normalcy.

Asymptotic properties of a stochastic SIQR epidemic model with Levy Jumps and Beddington-DeAngelis incidence rate

In this paper, we propose a stochastic SIQR model and discuss the impact of Levy jumps and Beddington-DeAngelis incidence rate on the transmission of diseases. We prove that our proposed model admits a unique global positive solution and an invariant positive set. We establish sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence of the disease in the population using some stochastic calculus background. We illustrate our theoretical results by numerical simulations. We infer that the white and Levy noises influence the transmission dynamic of the system.